Thursday, August 25, 2011

Constraints on the Singularity

Moore's law is a favorite of Singulatarians. Every so often there is an argument that we're nearing a constraint that will break Moore's law (here's a recent one).

Moore's law has held while we are incrementally improving a design and manufacturing process on one architecture, using one material. As such any exhaustion in innovations therein (or a change to a new substrate) should be expected to change Moore's law. If we're finally hitting a wall, then it's worth asking: what portion of economic growth over the last two or three decades is the result of productivity gains driven by information technology, driven in turn by Moore's law? We should worry much more about Peak Moore than Peak Oil.

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