Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Rejoice, We Conquer!

Metellus Celer recalls the following: when he was Proconsul in Gaul, he was given people from India by the king of the Sueves; upon requesting why they were in this land, he learnt that they were caught in a storm away from India, that they became castaways, and finally landed on the coast of Germany. They thus resisted the sea, but suffered from the cold for the rest of their travel, and that is the reason why they left.

Pomponius Mella, A.D. 43

* * *

Standing at harborside in Toltecatlan, Diving Eagle was shouting himself hoarse at the sailors loading his new flagship. He was clearly a very hands-on Sea-Prince, and not because he was trying to impress anyone. Early in the day he had thrown off his cape and shell collar and stood in only his robe, yelling and pointing and running between ships. The sailors were all very green, and if the way they'd just loaded that war-animal was any indication, not many of them knew what they were doing. The deep blue-green of the tropical harbor extended from the wharf to the horizon, where the Carib Sea met the sky, and it did nothing to calm Diving Eagle. A single island jutted from the warm sea, just big enough for two palms and a black-stone fort. Another new warship moored to the small fort-island dwarfed it as the ship sat high in the water, waiting to be loaded. As Eagle sprinted back and forth on the wharf dodging crewmen, he dripped with sweat and impatience. The humidity was not like Tenochtitlan's weather, and Diving Eagle wanted to be underway.

Eight-Grass appeared out of the stone-and- wood sprawl of the harbor town behind them. Eagle saw him out of the corner of his eye. Eight-Grass was clearly aware of the contrast between his own bony frame and feather headdress against Eagle's squat muscularity and Grass approached the military man awkwardly as he hurried along the old jetty. He asked: "Can I re-check something?"

"Yes, what." Eagle's eyes didn't leave the load that was being hoisted up onto the deck of his flagship Sabertooth.

"Is my second load of books on board?" Eight-Grass said.

"Yes."

"The second load."

"Yes. I personally made sure it was on the ship and in your quarters."

"They're important," Eight-Grass said nervously.

"I know," Eagle said.

"I don't mean to question you."

"No worries. This may be a very long voyage and we can't afford to damage or lose anything now." For the duration of their exchange, Eagle's eyes hadn't left the load being hoisted up onto the deck. Now Eight-Grass looked up at it too. The object was wrapped in cloth and it was relatively small.

"What's that?" Eight-Grass said.

"My table." Eagle added, "It's the same one that was in my quarters on the Sea Snake during the war. I planned all our invasions on it and ate many bad meals on it. If I can't have the Sea Snake as my flagship at least I can have my table."

"Superstition?" Eight-Grass tried to ask amicably.

"No. It's a good table." Grass said nothing, and turned to count the warships out on the bay, still waiting to be loaded. Diving Eagle saved him the effort. He said, "These are the final sixty-eight."

* * *

When we hominids were still exclusively an East African animal, the playing field between us was level. Everyone lived in the same few thousand square kilometers. No flooded land bridges or spreading deserts had yet isolated our genes and cultures to ferment in isolation, to accumulate chance discoveries, to develop resistance to some germ or a new trick of warfare or metal-working so we could conquer our neighbors. If the human story to date had unfolded only within the small realm of our first biome, history might have been much more even-handed, and things might have gone differently.

But things did not go differently. Like colonies of primates growing in test tubes, we unknowingly quarantined ourselves in jungles and steppes and forests and tundras, and in each isolated corner of the Earth the historical accidents began to pile on top of one another, and the unfair odds piled up along with them. Of course, in reality Earth has no corners; and inevitably, soon there was nowhere new to go. Inevitably, every new horizon across an ocean or mountain range was an old one to someone else, already filled with other faces. In this way the quarantines ended. In the ensuing collisions, millennia of these accumulated accidents would come crashing down, like current through a suddenly closed circuit.

Today, we're fascinated with accounts of early encounters between those breeds of primates – like Lewis and Clarke in the Northwest, or Captain Cook in the Pacific. These supposedly true stories are interesting enough that we can't help embellishing them or outright making some up. We scour history for the tiniest scraps of evidence. We squint at supposed Norse rune stones found in a field in Minnesota, or we read claims of medieval Japanese ships landing in Hawaii, or stretch the words of Roman historians until we think they were writing about Native Americans blown off course to ancient Europe. Occasionally, we even indulge the historical conceit of imagining new chains of events differing from the one we're actually standing in. What would an Enlightenment Africa have looked like without three centuries of globalized slavery? What would Persia have become if it hadn't been broken by Alexander? What if Europeans didn't discover America until the industrial age? These exercises typically ignore the massive suffering of the people whose cultures were on the wrong side of the circuit, in favor of more high-minded academic questions. History reads very differently depending on the color of the skin you live in, and how history has treated that color.

* * *

It was a strange time in Mexico then. The end of the Carib War had brought both glory and poverty to all of Nahuatlan. In Tenochtitlan, for the first time in decades, there was real hunger, and no work for all the young men returning from their island-hopping campaigns across the Carib Sea. Everywhere there were heroic murals of the celebrated Second Navy Sea-Prince Diving Eagle being presented with flowers and roasted hearts by High Speaker Angry-Coyote, with the ceremonial First Navy stretching away behind them in colorful rows on Lake Texcoco. The figures on the murals were giant, and they were everywhere. And they were everywhere looming over huddles of small, hungry people in tlaxcala-lines.

Diving Eagle had been back from the war scarcely a year when a messenger had rowed through the floating gardens to his estate in Xochimilco to tell him that "something had been found". Eagle's impatience turned to understanding the following day when he stood before Angry-Coyote once again, in a torch-lit lower meeting room underneath the Palace, the walls crawling with painted snakes. The Speaker's minister Eight-Grass was there, and Diving Eagle had intently examined the small thing Eight-Grass handed him, the thing which had washed up on Farthest Carib Island.

Eagle had held the thing in one hand, squinting. It was a rectangular board, thin like bark, firm and light. A maze of green and gold lines was minutely etched on its surface, almost as if printed. There were small chips of black embedded in the surface of the board. The decorative gold lines were curiously asymmetric, and the pattern didn't repeat.

"What is it?"

Eight-Grass responded, "The only theory so far is some kind of pottery shard. And that's unlikely." Eagle had continued to examine it and Grass had said, "The point is, we have no goods like it from any nation we know of. And whoever made that has wealth and well-developed art." Eight-Grass added, "Based on the sea currents near Farthest Carib Island, I have deduced the area it must have come from."

Eagle had quickly seen where this was heading, and how he may profit. "If great Angry-Coyote wishes it," he said with full deference, "the Second Navy will sail again."

"Ah. Angry-Coyote wishes a Third Navy," the Speaker had said, tapping a prepared scroll on the table. "We go in strength. If this new nation's strength is equal to the Nahuatlan, we leave Eight-Grass and some other men as an embassy. If not, we don't." He let the two-way implication speak for itself.

"It's done, your highness." Angry-Coyote unrolled the scroll on the dark wood table and smacked it with his bone butterfly stamp. It was done.

* * *

If I ask you whether our world, our history, is the best of all possible worlds, you would probably be hard-pressed to say yes, and harder-pressed to tell me coherently why, whatever your answer. But I bet you’re still secretly, circularly relieved that things turned out as they did. For all the remorse expressed over the conquest of indigenous Americans, few white Americans have advocated giving the land back, at least outside of the reservation system. And if you visit a reservation, you’ll find that modern native life does not resemble any romantic vision you may have. Then again, for my part, I like living in California, and I don’t want to move to Europe where my ancestors came from three centuries ago, and I don’t want to start paying tribute to the Ohlone or Kumeyaay either.

Unfortunately, today it’s hard to imagine how the specific times and places and players in these initial collisions could have mattered to how things ended. The tides of whole civilizations were driving these events, and they’re driving us right now. Perhaps the world would look different if some of the primate breeds had collided after more quarantine, or less. But that’s not what happened. Exactly which man met which man, and in what city, and on what date, could have made no difference in the long run. The flood would still have come, and the circuit would still have closed. History is as it is, and the remaining red people have little choice but to get over it. The players are just the foam on the waves, and their famous quotes are in reality inconsequential. But because they announced the floods, their words still ring in the heart of the world.

* * *

Eleven days out of Toltecatlan they sighted the arc of islands that extended southwest from the Swamp-Peninsula, and the lone fort built during the war on the farthest. Diving Eagle came up on deck under blue skies and full white clouds to watch it go by, and nodded to Eight-Grass, who was even skinnier after days of losing his meals over the side. The local building material was poor so the fort was all sand-mud and wood, not black-stone. The building looked lonely and brave sitting there, a speck at the edge of the flat sandy island when the fleet sailed past. Though he didn’t announce this to Eight-Grass or any of the crew of his own vessel, Diving Eagle had never been past the tip of the Swamp-Peninsula and out of the Carib Sea, into the Great Sea. As far as they knew, no one had.

Eagle shouted a few things to the oar slaves and the men were suddenly busier with the sails as the Sabertooth moved into new currents, and then without saying another word to anyone, he went back below to take his supper at his old table.

* * *

Ten days later, the breezes died, and they had their first real weather, a windless mild rain that frayed tempers despite its softness. When it cleared, the ships were dragging through a zone of massive seaweed tangles. The countless great warships suddenly looked very heavy and slow, and up on deck Diving Eagle found himself stealing glimpses at the supply ships, trying to gauge how high they sat in the water, calculating how much food the war-animals took and when they should start slaughtering or throwing them overboard. He said nothing of this to Three-Bat or any of his officers. Shadowy things splashed and swam in the tangles they passed through the ocean-forest, and the Sea-Prince overheard rumors from the crew about monsters hanging onto the ship from beneath, slowing them down; about poisonous fish and visions of ancestors warning them off. He ate supper up on deck with the crew to calm them, and made a point of eating a fish in front of them that had been caught out of this strange and alien sea, showing that it did not poison him. He also locked away in the hold the most excitable crew member, a lazy rumor-mongering Zapotec who Eagle thought probably just wanted to convince the fleet to go back to Mexico. Eagle observed that this Zapotec became taciturn after an extended beating. Zapotecs usually did.

In the evening as Diving Eagle studied charts in private, Eight-Grass came to his quarters. Grass’s scrollish chestnut-brown paleness had become noticeably darker from the sun.

“You look good!” Diving Eagle said. “You’re a bit thin, but I told you the fresh air is good for you after all.”

“Still no land,” Eight-Grass said simply.

“Yes, and?” Diving Eagle was impatient with Grass’s worrying, as he was with everyone, and looked back down at the chart. He had spread a sabertooth pelt over the old table to protect the worn old bark scrolls from wearing against the pitted, splintered wood.

“Maybe the land bends to the north here. It does at least along the Swamp-Peninsula.”

“Yes, it does bend to the north here, even north of the Swamp, but not that much. Weren’t you the one who said the object came from this direction?”

“Yes, but I don’t know how far.”

“The Great Sea is just another enclosed sea like the Carib Sea, surrounded by land. Just bigger.”

“I’m not so sure about that,” Grass said.

“You know a lot from your maps and books, but things feel a lot different when you’re in the map, don’t they?”

“Or off it, in this case.”

“Try to generalize,” Eagle said. “Doesn’t this seaweed remind you of the Carib Sea’s southern edge, when you’re approaching the coastal marshes? On the Warao Coast? I’m telling you, we’re approaching land.”

“I’ve never been there. To the Warao Coast.”

“I have. It looks just like this.”

“But there are strange things going on.”

“Like what,” Diving Eagle muttered.

Eight-Grass said haltingly, “The seaweed and the creatures – we’re coming to the edge of the real world. After this we’ll be in another reality. In – in some alien version of nature. Where maybe we can’t survive.”

“Look at me.”

“I’m looking,” Eight-Grass said.

“Into my eyes.”

“I’m looking.”

Diving Eagle leaned toward Eight-Grass. “There is no evidence to suggest anything of the sort, you old woman. None. We’re going through seaweed and it’s slowing us down. That’s all.” Eagle sighed. “Grass. I appreciate your knowledge.” His voice lowered and his eyes darkened. “But ships require discipline. That’s difficult to maintain, and with the ambassador-to-be expressing these kinds of doubts, it’s impossible. If you are saying these kinds of things to anyone but me, there will be consequences.” He didn’t like having to take the hard line with officers so soon in the voyage. It was a bad sign.

Grass quickly genuflected and left. Eagle had thought he recognized in Grass the expertise to know when his leader said he wanted to hear conflicting opinions, but didn’t actually want to hear conflicting opinions. Eagle never bothered to pretend he wanted to hear conflicting opinions.

In two more days, the patches of seaweed ended, and still they didn’t see any land.

* * *

Their days of decent weather ended when a frightening purple storm blew up to their west. Diving Eagle had no choice but to order the fleet north and further east to be away from it. The oar slaves rowed tirelessly to escape the tempest, until a strong current caught the fleet and propelled them away from the storm and further out over the endless water. In his quietest of hearts, Eagle began to doubt the closed-sea theory.

Another evening Eight-Grass came into Eagle’s quarters. Grass’s visits had become much less frequent, but no less blunt. Eagle was eating at his old pine table and reading in Mayan from a faded scroll of star positions. It pleased Eagle to wonder if it surprised Grass that he could read Mayan.

“We’re lost. There’s no way we’ll ever get back,” Grass said.

“I see you’ve been appointed Fleet Optimist,” Diving Eagle said around a mouthful of boiled dog. He added, “There must be land eventually.”

“You don’t know that. The sea could go on forever.”

“Fine then,” Eagle said. “We’re being pushed east. Fast. What would you do?” Grass was silent. Absently Eagle reached into a pouch and produced the green-and-gold board that had launched the fleet, tracing its thicker etched pathways with his finger. “That’s right. There’s nothing else to do. Either we give up and jump into the sea, or we keep on until we come to land.” He paused for effect. “We will come to land soon.” He hoped his voice didn’t ring so falsely in Grass’s ears too.

* * *

Three-Bat had been Diving Eagle’s head land-fight-leader during the war. Although they’d served together for years, they had never talked much. They never had to. Three-Bat was from a high family, higher than Eagle’s, but Eagle knew that Three-Bat’s rank wasn’t owing to his blood. Bat really was a good land-fight-leader; his unscarred face was testament to skill, not inexperience.

It was for that reason that Eagle gave more mind to Three-Bat’s concerns than Eight-Grass’s. Three-Bat came to see him when they were still in the endless open sea, gray-streaked hair braided simply behind him.

“It’s the animals,” Three-Bat said. “The keepers are having trouble with them. There were two maulings yesterday. We’ve never had them at sea for this long. During the war the longest was two weeks.”

“Restrain them.” Eagle knew almost nothing about the keeping of war-animals.

“This is why I wanted better trained men for this. It’s a hard job. They can step on you.”

“We’ll be there soon, Three-Bat.”

“How long?”

“Days, Three-Bat. Days.”

* * *

Although Diving Eagle had encouraged his men to fish for food and he tightly rationed the freshwater in the rain-tanks, their supplies were getting low, and little things began to make the Sea-Prince snap at his men. It wasn’t until the fifty-ninth day past the Swamp-Peninsula fort that they saw driftwood – then two days later, birds. Two days after that, Eagle was disturbed from his breakfast by a wild cheer. Hurrying to the deck, he saw that sunrise had revealed rugged ridges distant on the horizon. The Sea-Prince commanded the riggers and oar slaves to make for it, and ordered his obsidian throne brought up to the deck.

On closer approach, Eagle saw that there were two high promontories growing out of the quiet water, brown sandstone dusted with green, and a wide strait that lay between them. There were no forts, no smoke trails, no roads cut into the side of any of the rock. The first warships cautiously entered the strait, and when the Sabertooth entered Eagle saw that the water was calm as glass. Dolphins stirred the water to their north.

Eagle ordered that half the fleet anchor on the north side and half the south side of the strait. The Sea-Dukes commanding the other ships had their men land and the parties on the north side reported that they’d found freshwater creeks, taken some game, and pastured the war-animals. The land reminded some of the men of the northern part of Nahuatlan, along the Great Western Sea. There was no sign of men, but plenty of deer, and good wood. There were some other strange animals, ugly with flat noses, but the men found that their roasted flesh tasted good. Diving Eagle tried some that they brought on board and found it pissy and disagreeable, spitting it out, to the good-natured jeers of his ship’s crew. Despite their protests, as a precaution Eagle insisted the men return to the ships and the great fleet anchor for the night off the coast.

“See?” he said later to Grass. “Virgin forest. Perfect.” Only later did he wonder where the pot-makers were if there was no one cutting down forests or burning wood, but no one else seemed to wonder. In the absence of anyone to ask what the north-side land was called – frankly, in the absence of any interest to know what any natives might call it – Eagle named it New Mexico. The scouts mapped the land and coastline, but they found no cities. Diving Eagle began daily briefings with his land-fight-leaders.

The next afternoon as Diving Eagle readied for supper, a land-fighter, trembling, was brought to Eagle by his personal guards. In private the fighter told Eagle that in some coastal scrub he’d found an old fire-ring. The man insisted he had told nobody, in a way that Diving Eagle knew meant he had told somebody. The next day it didn’t matter, because while Eagle was eating with his men on the long boards set up on deck, two small sailboats appeared on the horizon. They approached, then turned and slowly moved off. Eight-Grass, eating in his quarters, came up on deck at hearing the commotion and came to Eagle’s side while they watched. Eagle noticed Grass’s pouting silence as they watched the boat disappear on the horizon, over the crew’s murmuring. Armored rowers on patrol in long canoes came up alongside Diving Eagle’s flagship asking whether they should pursue, but he said no – the little boats were too far away. It could be a trap, Eagle thought, and based on what he’d seen so far, he wasn’t too worried what the locals could do to him, even with advance knowledge.

His face purple, Eight-Grass retired to his quarters. Eagle pretended not to notice.

* * *

The next day, they sailed further east, and the strait quickly opened wide. Naming it the Far Eastern Sea, Eagle ordered the riggers and rowers to keep to the northern coastline from now on.

That evening Eight-Grass came to Diving Eagle’s quarters. Eagle was meeting with the land-fight-leaders. “We’re almost done,” Eagle said to him when the guard brought him, and turned back to the officers.

“To re-emphasize, we’re doing something different from the way we did it in Guanahani. Yaoyotlcalli, then the animals, then the infantry. Go it?” Murmured assent. Eagle risked annoying them with apparent condescension. “Not good enough. Repeat: yaoyotlcalli, then the animals, then the infantry.”

The land-fight-leaders chanted: “Yaoyotlcalli, then the animals, then the infantry.” They finished their meeting and the landers glanced at Grass as they filed out, like they were looking at the younger kid they had to pick for their Ollama team. Eagle noticed the body language but didn’t need to address it.

“Quickly,” Eagle said to him. Though busy, Eagle knew was anticipating the campaign and could see in himself a jovial mood; that is to say, an abusive one. “I don’t have much time, and I got a splinter from my table during the meeting. Please tell me, what mysterious catastrophes await us now, wise one.”

“This is completely unknown land,” Grass immediately burst out. “We could be walking into suicide. It shows supreme arrogance and naïveté to see a ship and say ‘they’re barbarians’ and let them go. It shows arrogance to assume you’ll be able to march in and dispatch the natives so easily.”

“Every time I’ve marched in before I’ve dispatched the natives so easily.” Eagle bit at the splinter on his thumb. Eagle saw Grass’s eyes go to the strange green-and-gold board sitting on the pine table in front of him.

“Look at that,” Grass said, pointing at the object. “We have no idea what that is or what it does. It may be some kind of machine or weapon. For all we know there may be massive cities of ghosts, men with machines and magic that we can’t understand at all.”

“I’m glad I won’t have to listen to your shit for much longer.”

“What do we do if we land and there in front of us there are huge castles and metal-plated armies? What if these plates were finding are parts to a machine we can’t even understand?” Diving Eagle rolled his eyes and waited for Eight-Grass to finish. “We won’t just be backing away politely and getting back in our ships, that’s for certain.”

“You’re worried about meeting gods, is that it? Gods with weapons like potted thunder that can strike you down in mid-stride from across the battlefield?” Eight-Grass said nothing, annoyed that his objections were being cast into such a ridiculous light when they were controlled by someone else’s mouth. “Listen up, Taino-woman. In the real world there’s no magic. There are no ghosts. We’ve seen no evidence of cities or real civilization. These are just more dog-people, like they always are outside of Mexico, and in the end we’ll be amazed they can make even these trinkets.” Eagle waved at the board on the table before him. “And anyway it’s a little late to indulge these worries unless you’re going to swim back.”

“All I know is charging in like this, trouble is what we’ll get.”

“Fine. We’re not going to get in very much trouble if we don’t know where anyone is and we can’t talk to them. That’s why the first thing we talked about in our meeting before you came was catching us one of those sailboats.”

* * *

Only twice after entering through the straits did they see more ships. Small things, relying on puny sails, they became less impressive the closer they got. The small vessels kept well clear of the Mexican warships. So far, there was no indication, from the scouts or anywhere, that Eight-Grass’s fears of thunder-gods would be realized; the ships that had visited the southern coast of the Eastern Sea found it even more deserted and primitive than this one, more desert-like and devoid of any civilization. The third time they saw one of the little sailboats, very close to them as they emerged from a strait between an island and the eastern shore of the Eastern Sea, the Sea-Duke Three-Bat led them in their efforts to pick one up, running it down with one of the smaller faster eagle-ships.

It was over quickly. The strange-looking men on the boat didn’t give it up without a fight, if the blood on the men who came back to the Sabertooth was any indication. Eight-Grass had seen sacrifice but never real fighting and he was horrified at the aftermath when the dog-people were brought aboard. The men in the boat appeared to have been fishing. There had been four of them, and now there was only one. They were pale, sick-looking, like the underbelly of fish, and Eagle ordered the bodies and the living one be handled with blankets since they looked so ill. They smelled terrific, that much was certain.

Diving Eagle came down to one of the dank cells in the ship’s belly, flanked by two jaguar-knights, and played the game he liked to play with the people on the islands of the Carib Sea. Grass watched through a knot in the wood. In the torchlight, the frightened dog man’s eyes were a bizarre blue color. As Eagle and his guards sat in the cell inspecting the dog-man, another of the knights entered with a small wooden chest, from which he produced a gourd.

“Water,” Eagle enunciated to the frightened man, poking him with a tepozmacuahuitl. “Water.” The knight poured water out of the gourd onto the boards. The man made some noise. “Water!” Eagle shouted, and a knight slapped the dog-man’s face. The dog-man looked up again and painfully, gutturally sounded out “water”.

“Heart.” Eagle pointed at his own chest. Again the man stammered the word. Eagle laughed. The grunting native was obviously having had trouble with the –tl’s at the ends of words.

Diving Eagle smiled, and pointed to his bracelets. “Gold,” he said. The fish-bellies would learn the connection between those last two.

* * *

They caught a few more boats-worth of the pale dog-men along the coast of this cool forested land, and a whole tribe of them along the Eastern Sea’s edge, learning their first local place name: “Itlia”. Soon they ran out of room for more captives. Most of the natives cooperated after a bit of poking; some of the more intractable ones were dispatched to Quetzalcoatl in quick ceremonies. The Mexicans soon learned that they had not come to the eastern edge of the sea but they were actually rounding a peninsula, and their captives were making decent maps which showed the locations of villages, including one that they’d just missed. One of the returning eagle-ship crew, a kid named Tonatiuh who Diving Eagle had made one of his official messengers, ran excitedly to tell the Sea-Prince that on one of the boats they pried open a box filled with the green-and-gold boards, but the Mexicans still couldn’t figure out what they were for, and the fish-belly couldn’t or wouldn’t explain it. Eight-Grass overheard this exchange and asked Diving Eagle to speak to him in private.

“On deck will be fine,” Eagle said.

“Fine,” Eight-Grass aid. “On deck, in front of your men. I defy you to explain the things your men are reporting.”

“Like what?”

“Soldiers flying like birds. Chariots that can go up or down hills by themselves, talking treasure chests, even half-man half-beast soldiers. That’s just the beginning. You–”

“Where are they?” Eagle demanded. His voice rose to a shout and he gestured grandly at the coast. “Where are they?! All these ridiculous hallucinations you’re having!”

“Then explain the function of any of the artifacts that were confiscated from the tribe on the peninsula! It won’t seem so academic a question in the middle of a battle!”

“Tell you what, Grass,” Eagle said. “I’ll command my fleet, and you spend your day trying to learn what ridiculous spirits the fish-bellies pray to. That’s the last time I tolerate your disrespect. Now go talk to more dog-people.”

* * *

Diving Eagle was finally satisfied that their “interviews” with the pale men were producing consistent maps. When finally he’d learned of a place where two of these fish-belly tribes were busy fighting each other, he sent messages out to all the lander-boats. At noon the next day he took a canoe across to the closest lander boat, where his land-fight-leaders were to line up for the ceremonial inspection. The Sabertooth shrank behind him as the rowers took him across toward the creaking hulks of the lander boats, their strong animal-smell coming across the water. Eagle climbed the rope ladder to board one of the squarish wooden landers, careful not to lose his red cape and feathers and shell collar into the water in the maritime breeze. As he climbed onto the deck all the Sea-Dukes and the dozen land-fight-leaders were all at attention in full armor.

Diving Eagle asked Three-Bat, “Are the yaoyotlcalli ready?” The exchange was purely ceremonial; the real inspection had passed in the morning.

Three-Bat said, “They’ve been ready.” One of the massive things stood in its bay behind Three-Bat, rude bronze angles and planes glowing dully in the sun.

“The war-animals are fed and dressed?” Before Bat answered, something heavy rumbled against the stall behind Eagle and stomped. He turned to crane his head upward to the top of the stall behind him and despite themselves his men laughed.

“Yes, and impatient,” Three-Bat said.

“I can see that. Me too.” Eagle had planned and rehearsed for every contingency, every mistake, but now was not the time for such thoughts. He breathed deeply. He thought about Mexico, and he pictured the upflung obsidian-streaked skyscrapers of glorious Tenochtitlan, the tallest in the world, and he thought about the glory that would be his.

“Two days, men.”

* * *

It was a clear early afternoon. The black line of the rocky coast was to their north, and from where Diving Eagle stood on deck with Three-Bat he could see the now-detached lander-boats spread out in lines, oars twitching to keep them in formation. The warships were lined up facing east and moving toward the land, where their village would be damaged by the tribal skirmish they’d found out about. The locals were already fighting. The smaller, slower ships their informants had told them about were there in front of them, but they were far off and sailing southeast. There was smoke swirling on the surface of the water around them, under the blue sky.

“Where are those ships going?” Diving Eagle said.

“I don’t know,” Three-Bat said. “We expected them either to stay or to attack us.”

“Maybe they lost,” Eagle said.

“The fish-bellies seemed pretty sure that the ones coming by sea would win.” Bat paused to count. “There are a lot of them,” he said cautiously.

“Look at these ships.” Diving Eagle gestured to their own fleet. “Now look at those.” He tossed his head toward the numerous but small and tattered canoes they were watching drift out of the steep-sided harbor. He paused for effect. “I don’t think it will be a fair fight either way.”

“We’re proceeding as planned.”

* * *

Suppose that maybe ten thousand years ago, things did go differently than you and I learned they went. Maybe there was a meteor impact; after all, it’s happened often enough. Maybe it was the biggest one since the end of the Eocene. Maybe what would have been Arabia and Syria ended up at the bottom of a crater, along with most of Turkey, Egypt, and Mesopotamia.

For months you could have looked south from the Caucasus and seen the cooling crater rim glowing red at night if you’d survived the shockwave and onrush of burning air after the impact; you would have heard hissing where the waters of the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf and the Caspian rushed together and boiled above the huge wound in the Earth. There’s a new sea at the crossroads of the Old World, but no Fertile Crescent, and no Silk Road. This new sea is encircled with high mountains, keeping the few surviving neolithics in the surrounding continents from crossing the crater, or even the singed wastelands of shocked quartz and melted glass that surround it. The dust and steam block the sun, the Earth cools, and most of what’s left of Eurasia is glaciated within a few years. The ice sheets finally roll back maybe a dozen centuries ago, leaving mammoths and lions still wandering around landscapes you might even recognize. Unless of course you’re in the Middle East.

Of course, had this happened, you also wouldn’t exist to read this story. And I wouldn’t exist to tell it. The impact, both literal and historical, would be enough to render the subsequent passage of history unrecognizable. For millennia after such an impact, if you listened, whether from the tortured remnants of the Peloponnesus or within the upflung obsidian skyscrapers of the great metropolis Tenochtitlan, tallest in the world, you would not even hear the sound of the floodwaters hissing as they boiled away. Whatever immortal lines the pre-literate bards of Eurasia had written about it would be inconsequential. You would hear only the sound the impact had made in the heart of the world, still ringing.

* * *

A thin, short man crested a meadowed hill and ran down through the pines on the other side, sweat-salt crusted on his tanned face. He slackly stared into the distance as he pounded down the narrow dirt path. An hour ago his mind had wandered, imagining that he was pushing himself up the slope of the distant curving rim of mountains that encircled the deep Central Sea that separated Greece and Persia. But now, he pushed so hard that there was no life to spare to fuel his mind, and he was only nothing. He knew only the distant goal of Athens toward which he ran, twenty-five miles from the battle, and he knew his legs, which churned automatically underneath him to get him up and down these dusty pine-strewn hills. He had become an empty vessel that moved over the Earth toward the city, carrying the good news of two words. The sounds cycled in his mind until like a mantra they were sense-impressions only, like an animal call or another language, without meaning, distant echoes:

Chairete! Nikomen!

He ran and ran and ran, past more trees and wooden fences and small farms and over hills now safe from crushing foreign feet. He ran so far that he couldn’t possibly remember the whole route. When finally he looked upon the hazy white figure of the distant Acropolis, the bridge in front of him into the city almost surprised him. It snapped him back to the reality of his body; his chest hurt and his throat was swelling shut. There was a taste in his throat like blood and bad shellfish. He was dizzy; his chest felt like a bull was sitting on him. He wondered if this was what it felt like when your heart fails.

Feet still pounding, he called with precious breath to the boys guarding the bridge into Athens:

“Rejoice! We–”

“Philippides! Haven’t you seen them?”

His blurry mind didn’t follow what the boy was saying. Philippides realized dimly that he knew the boys, that he had paid them to break horses for his family. The boy was pointing past the pines and the rocks and the breakers on the rocky beach, out into the sea past the mouth of the small river. Philippides ground to a stop and painfully turned toward the bay, squinting, and finally he saw pointed clouds over the water – no, he saw that the bay of Athens was filled with massive, high-sided ships with monstrous sails. They seemed to spread to the horizon, and they were definitely not Greek. The Persians must have had a second navy.

Philippides’s eyes rolled in his head and he collapsed. The boys rushed to his side, and in their arms his heart ceased its labors.

* * *

Eight-Grass appeared on deck behind Eagle and Three-Bat, who were watching the first landing-boats approaching the shore. Eagle had almost forgotten Grass was still on the ship. Eagle said nothing to him.

Unable to contain himself, Eight-Grass finally said to them, “Your arrogance is about to pay off. I think we’re about to see our war-animals cut to pieces by this village’s weapons.” Grass pointed to the village, where they could already see the roofs spread out from the coastline, and high on a hill behind them, hazy with distance, a monument of snowy white stone, sitting on gray cliffs.

Eagle didn’t look at him. “Shut up.” Then to his personal guards, “Take this idiot down and lock him up with the surly Zapotecs. We won’t be needing an ambassador, I think.”

* * *

The boy Lysimachos cradled Philippides in his arms, talking softly to him, trying to revive him. He called despairingly to Nikostratos for the good Punic vase that he’d taken from his mother to carry water, the one with the tiny, intricate green and gold engraving, and dripped cool water on Philippides’s lips. It was no use.

As the minutes passed, the wet skin and lean muscles against Lysimachos turned ashen, cooled, and stiffened. With tears in his eyes, he set the runner’s light body gently down. He imagined it seemed lighter now that the soul had left it. Numbly, he closed the man’s eyes.

“He did well,” Nikostratos said, trying to ease his friend’s tears. Lysimachos’s robe was stained with the sweat and dust of the fallen messenger. “Philippides died in service to Athens.” Lysimachos looked down at Philippides and wept.

The sound of shouting broke through their mourning. It was the men posted on top of the great rock jutting from the beach, calling up to the hills to the west for more men. The strange Persian ships were moving. They were coming for the land. The wide-eyed adolescents turned to see dust rising from the inland hills. The tired army had been called by messengers from the coastal forts, and they were forced-marching to the landing sites.

“We should get swords,” Nikostratos said earnestly.

“How could the Persians have brought another fleet here so quickly?” Lysimachos said.

“I don’t know, but we should get swords. We have to fight.”

“There aren’t any swords left,” Lysimachos said quietly. “They have them all,” he said gesturing to the sun-streaked dust-cloud rising from the hills. In fours and fives small groups of shouting men were running past them through the meadows down onto the beach and drawing their bows.

“If we can’t fight here then we go to the hills,” Nikostratos said. “We can drop stones on them. Anything.”

Scrambling up the hill toward a jumble of rocks, they watched over their shoulders as the boats came toward the beach, large square things with oars coming out like beetles’ legs, and the first ones were entering the breakers. Arrows fired from the thin line of men assembled on the beach, sticking into the wooden sides of the great squares like men’s whiskers. Then the square boats were aground, and they opened like the mouths of horses. Things thundered forward from the boats, things like squat bronze elephants of metal surrounded by swirling pointed blades, lumbering up onto the sand, cutting the charging Greek defenders into red flying meat. Then behind those there were other elephants, mounted, shaggy, huge, bigger than the Persians’. Then there were dark men wreathed in bright armor and feathered hats coming in another wave, leaping from the boats into the water and forging forward out of the breakers and onto the sand. Arrows bounced from their shields. There was the sound of splashing and alien screaming. The invaders cut into the line of Greeks, and through it.

“The Persians must have brought an army from India,” Nikostratos said. “Look at their skin.”

“Look at those elephants,” Lysimachos said. “Look at those bronze land-ships. These aren’t men. These can only be gods. They’ve come down from Olympus to punish our hubris.”

Nikostratos told him to be silent, and clutched a rock in his sweating palm.

* * *

The Elenatecs, though their whole nation was already prepared for war, didn’t fight in any disciplined formation, and their tepozmacuahuitl (if they even deserved the name) were simple and straight and not serrated, and far too heavy to be fast. The battle was over quickly. Negotiations with the other chiefs in the “civilized” parts of New Eight-Grassland, including the already-defeated Parsatecs, were almost ceremonial, especially as the diseases we brought began to decimate the continent.

It should seem stranger to us now, living in Elenatlan or Itlia five centuries later – not all that long on the scale of all human history – that we see so few white faces in all of North Grassland, notwithstanding the Set-Aside Districts in northern New Michoacan. For that matter, even the Goteca of that region don’t quite live like kings, unless it’s as kings of coca powder. Unfortunately it’s hard to imagine how history could have turned out differently for the soft and naïve cultures we found. There were no sacrifices to maintain community, indeed no discernible social order at all – insanely, Elenatlan was a place where any landowner could speak to a king as an equal. This seems to us today a frightening and unsustainable social mess. The Yurotecs frequently governed themselves in “council” form, making group decisions, and the Elenatecs were only one example. It’s still debated how they ever managed to fight off the Parsatecs, and in fairness we probably treated them better than the Inca would have. But much of our concern is the result of our own cultural myopia. Of course, we’re reflexively most comfortable in the world as it actually happened.

Looking back, even in the hardships that they encountered post-contact, the Yurotecs managed to rally behind heroes. Two significant rebel leaders have been studied to death. Of course there’s Aleksatl – the White Moctezuma – whose tactical brilliance has only recently come to be appreciated – and of course Annipal, mostly taught by his native white mother. Annipal is more recent and captivates us more, not only because of his clever use of our war-animals, but because he set in motion the events that would break colonial Cartago free from the imperial rule of faraway Mexico. Despite their brilliance, both men were doomed. They were like foam on the waves of the ocean. History is inevitable; yaoyotlcalli, disease, and obsidian can’t be resisted for long.

Today, there’s a new consciousness of the culture which passed before us, the ruins of which in the case of Elenatlan City are literally under our feet. The recent popularity of the plays of Esctli are testament to this, and suddenly we’re scolded if we call them fish-bellies, as we did in a less enlightened time. Would Aleksatl care about our new manners? But it’s always easy to be respectful to a safely vanquished foe. The fact is, Yurotec culture in general is a museum piece, and what we have today are the trappings of the moribund civilization – its bas relief carvings, its metalwork, and its haunting marble temples. It’s often pointed out that their blood survives in us – and it’s likely that you and I are both part Yurotec, though we don’t usually discuss it in polite company – but this is a meaningless observation. The surviving purebloods play by our rules, allowed to express themselves only within closely proscribed, largely academic boundaries. That’s why we still use third person to refer to the Yurotecs, centuries after we overran their land and absorbed their genes. We can spend our days trying to imprint the past with modern morality, but we still have to live in the present. I don’t know about you, but I like Elenatlan and I’m not moving back to Mexico anytime soon.

For the Yurotecs, unfortunately, the only choice is to get over it, because this year marks the five hundredth anniversary of the distance-rowing race that commemorates the canoe-messenger Tonatiuh. After the Battle of Elenatlan, he raced 36 xicatetli to carry the news back out to the Sabertooth, with the words that still ring in the heart of the world: Xiahahuiacan, tipehuah!

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Roko's Basilisk in the Form of a Metal Song

When Metallica writes a song about the singularity, it's probably close. "Stop breathing, and dedicate to me - stop dreaming, and terminate for me."



Friday, October 2, 2020

Prediction: Venusian Phosphine is a Metabolic Product of Living Cells Already Detected As Unknown Absorbers

(Added later: since I wrote this, further research has provided evidence showing it is very unlikely that the unknown absorbers are biological. Not only was the phosphine paper a product of bad spectrometry that failed multiple attempts at replication, there are at least two papers - Jiang et al 2024, and Egan et al 2025 - that have provided good candidate abiotic explanations for what the absorbers could be.)

The last two years have provided us with the strongest evidence ever assembled of extraterrestrial life:

  1. Prior theories about relic ecosystems surviving in the more Earth-like parts of Venus's atmosphere.
  2. Detection of UV absorbers the size of bacteria in Venus's atmosphere, with no explanation as to their identity.
  3. Prior, independent advancement of phosphine as a biosignature gas.
  4. Detection of phosphine in the Venusian cloud decks with no explanation for its persistence.

Here I propose that Venus had an iron-sulfur ecosystem with a chlorophyll-equivalent that absorbs closer to the UV spectrum rather than visible light - essentially, "UV-synthetic" Venusian cyanobacteria. The oceans boiled away and Venus became hotter and more acidic from volcanism and possibly, their own Great Sulfuration (or Sulfur Oxidation, equivalent to Earth's Great Oxygenation.) The only survivors were the UV-synthetic Venusian archaebacteria that now live in the upper atmosphere. Today these have a life cycle like that described by Seager et al (2020), powered by UV and producing phosphine - Unknown Absorber Phosphine Producers (UAPPs.) They are likely related at great time depths to life on Earth. Initial research question is to see if areas of unknown absorbers correlates with phosphine, which can be done from Earth. Probes that collect material in the upper atmosphere could fairly straightforwardly check for aspects of biochemistry using an onboard instrument, and a sample return mission could be extremely productive.


Phosphine Production in the Clouds of Venus

If you're reading this you likely know that phosphine (PH3) was detected in the atmosphere of Venus - Vox explainer here; original paper by Greaves et al here. The measured concentrations are at biology-consistent levels, at an elevation where the pressure and temperature are similar to Earth's. This is by far the strongest evidence of extraterrestrial life yet discovered, with evidence from multiple sources.

Phosphine has been advanced as a possible seed compound delivered to Earth on comets or asteroids early in its history. But the chemistry of its formation in space (or on gas giants) is not mysterious. It's in the Venusian atmosphere where so far we can't explain its presence without some process that continuously replenishes it. One criticism of speculation about possible Venusian biochemistry is that just because we don't know how to make phosphine under Venusian conditions, doesn't mean we're looking at alien biology. True; but among these criticisms have not been any suggestions so far about what it might be. (Either way, we're about to learn something.) It's suggestive that this data is not completely unexpected - it can be fitted to prior hypotheses. We've been speculating more and more concretely for decades about how life might survive in the atmosphere of Venus for decades (see Morowitz and Sagan 1967.) A fairly elaborated model of microbial life in the atmosphere of Venus was advanced recently by Seager et al, consistent with observations so far. This should also increase our confidence in the Venusian-cloud-life hypothesis, that even before phosphine was detected, Sousa-Silva et al suggested phosphine as a biosignature molecule, independent of finding it on Venus.


A Related Mystery? The Unknown Absorbers



In visible light and false-color UV absorption. It's unusual to have such contrast in absorption at different wavelengths. Image credit syfy.com


For decades we have known that there are partciles about 10^-6 meters (the size of bacteria) in the Venusian atmosphere at a similar altitude (at 47 to 64km) as the phosphine detection above (at 57km and above). The dark bands we can see with the naked eye in the Venusian atmosphere contain more of them, but as you can see above in the UV image, they are much higher contrast (more absorbant). As with the origin of Venusian phosphine, the identity of the absorbers remains controversial, and Venusian biology had been advanced previously as a candidate explanation (Limaye et al 2018). The phosophine paper points out that there is more phosphine at mid-latitudes than the equator or poles, which by naked-eye examination of images of Venus, seems also to be where the absorbers are. It seems a relatively straightforward study to correlate the two, but as the absorbers move on a scale from minutes to days, data would have to be collected simultaneously. The stronger the correlation (especially within the same latitude) the more our confidence in the UAPP hypothesis of Venus cloud life would be increased.


What About Bacterial Life in Earth's Cloud Decks?

Earth's clouds do indeed contain lots of bacteria, and not just incidentally - some of them clearly evolved to take advantage of the precipitation cycle and indeed to deliberately cause ice to enucleate around it, like Pseudomonas syringae (this is actually economically relevant as the water ice-enucleation proteins produced by this species is used in the water fed into snow guns at ski resorts.) Bacteria have been found all the way up to 28 miles above the surface, where the pressure and temperature are both much lower and considerably less hospitable even to Earth's own life than the cloud decks on Venus. While we can't say there is an actual bacterial ecosystem in Earth's clouds (one which persists without interacting with the surface), we haven't really looked for one either; most of our interest in these organisms thusfar comes from studying plant pathogens that spread through weather events. It's worth pointing out that there is phosphine in Earth's upper atmosphere as well, with no clear mechanism for how it forms there. It should be noted that there is less in Earth's upper atmosphere by about 3 orders of magnitude; the levels in Venus's atmosphere are more similar to that found immediately around actively metabolizing bacteria on Earth's surface.


Toward an Evolutionary History of Venus

Why would life exist on the most hellish world in the solar system? The answer is that for at least 75% of its lifespan, Venus was a much more Earth-like planet with cooler temperatures and oceans.

There are two possible, not mutually exclusive stories that explain how this planet came to be the Venus we know today.

The first is that Venus was a little too close to the Sun, which caused its oceans to evaporate, plate tectonics to cease, and subsequent cataclysmic volcanism. As the oceans evaporated, the water vapor trapped the heat and accelerated the process. The deuterium/hydrogen ratio on Venus is about 150 times higher than Earth, where comets have at most a 3 times higher ratio than Earth, suggesting a very gradual loss to space of hydrogen from water and preferential retention of the heavier nucleus. Water lubricates plate tectonics, per Solomatov 2001. Climate modeling suggests that Venus may have had a habitable climate with liquid water at the surface until 715 MA ago (Way et al 2016.) The subsequenct evaporation of the oceans resulted in a planet where plate tectonics ground to a halt, and with no crustal mechanism to dissipate heat, and finally between 700 and 500 MA ago, Venus erupted in planet-wide massive flows that resurfaced the planet, utterly dwarfing any similar events on Earth (like the Siberian Traps.) This released the massive amounts of sulfur that we see today. This is the received wisdom and could entirely explain the modern state of Venus, and may alone be enough to explain all the sulfur.

There is another version of the story which reverses the causality - eruption causing evaporation, advanced by Way and Del Genio in 2019. It's worth noting that Venus has a thicker crust than Earth, owing to its lack of a large moon; therefore we should expect that the flows, when they do finally cause the crust to fail, are much stronger than in the parallel situation on an evaporated Earth.

The second possibility is obviously more speculative, a parallel to the Great Oxygenation in the history of life on Earth. In Earth's history, anaerobic cyanobacteria produced so much oxygen that they effectively poisoned themselves, but also set the stage for aerobic life. This could have been a great coincidence - there may just have happened to be genes close enough in design space to assemble oxyidation defenses and an aerobic metabolic pathway, and without such a coincidence, that may have been the end of life on Earth, or it may have settled into a simple bloom-and-bust oscillation as our bacterial mats may have for hundreds of millions of years evidenced by banded iron formations found in ancient rocks where they persist at the surface. (See discussion of endogenous extinctions here, which this section partly recapitulates.)

While an interesting idea, by Occam's razor we should spend no further time considering a possible Great Sulfuration, as we can explain the death of the Venusian surface ecosystem entirely based on abiotic meteorological and geological processes as above. It's also the case that the presence of increased CO2 relative to Earth can be easily explained by abiotic processes as well. Using ingenious reasoning about the necessary atmospheric pressure for flying dinosaurs' wings to function as well as the known rates of deposition of CO2 as carbon in continents and the ocean, we can arrive a figure of the equivalent of 85-100 bars' worth of CO2 trapped in the Earth's crust, similar to what is currently in the Venusian atmosphere. Presumably the atmospheric pressure of Venus was lower during its oceanic period owing to the same process, and rose subsequent to the evaporation, but I am not aware of any modeling retrodicting from oceanic evaporation 500-700 MA ago to the current pressure and mass of CO2 on Venus.

All this is to say that life on Venus may have gone a different way, but started quite similarly. We're now fairly confident the first metabolism on Earth was sea vent iron sulfur organisms, using sulfur in what is now oxygen's chemical role. The Great Oxygenation may have only happened when it did, a full 1.5 billion years after the first life and at least 800 million years after photosynthesis appeared, because an asteroid delivered molybdenum, allowing nitrogen fixation and more efficient anaerobic metabolism. Whatever the reason, had this happened prior to photosynthesis, we may have ended up with an Earth poisoned with sulfur or at least with a massive amount of oxidized sulfur.


Two Obvious Problems for the "UAPP Cells" Hypothesis for Life on Venus

There are two major hurdles to overcome in any argument that there is life in the cloudtops of Venus. The first is the question of how life operates without water, or with very little water; this would actually be a more stunning find than merely life which can tolerate high acidity! The second is the failure thusfar to detect any organics in the atmosphere. Without water and organic molecules, it's very hard to see how this won't end up being an interesting abiotic route to phosphine production along with some crystal we weren't anticipating at that altitude. That said, organic compounds on Venus may not be as unlikely as one might think - there was a Venusian equivalent of the Miller-Urey experiment performed, where under conditions of the Venusian atmosphere, organic compounds including amino acids were produced.

Furthermore, there remain arguments for an abiotic explanation for the unknown absorbers, specifically ferric chloride (Petrova 2018). Interestingly, this is partly advanced to explain another mystery which is the presence of rainbows ("Venus glory"), first observed in 2014 in the Venusian atmosphere.


Implications for Evolution in General and the Future of Life of Earth

It is more likely than not that life on Venus will be distantly related to life on Earth. A massive amount of material has been transferred between bodies in the solar system, with actual numbers calculated here; at that same link you will see reference to the survival of uncontrolled re-entry during the Columbia crash by not just bacteria, but animals (C. elegans worms, found alive on the ground weeks after the crash.) This is actually the more boring possibility, because we would learn much more about the basic principles of evolution and the possibilities of biochemistry beyond Earth's provincial commitments, if we really had a novel origin. Either way, if there is life on Venus, the likelihood of life on Mars, Europa, Enceladus and even Titan jumps dramatically, even if it's "just" a long-lost relative. I expect that ultimately the impact of finding life on Venus will be some neat new biochemistry (the old extremophiles will seem quaint) and a bit more information about how evolution can proceed.

It is unclear how we should feel about Venusian cloud UV-cyanobacteria in terms of the Great Filter, which suggests that the more life we find in the universe and the closer in terms of evolutionary stage to humans, the more concerned we should be - because the more likely our own extinction is before we can colonize planets beyond our own. If further exploration of Venus yields trilobites or vertebrates and these cells are all that are left, we should worry much more. In contrast, if Venus never got past vast floating bacterial mats (either in its clouds or ancient oceans). that's a bit more comfortable for us.


REFERENCES

Bains W, Petkowski J, Sousa-Silva C, Seager S. Trivalent phosphorus and phosphines as components of biochemistry in anoxic environments. Astrobiology 19, 7 (July 2019): p. 885-902 doi 10.1089/AST.2018.1958

Glindemann D, Edward M, Kuschk P. Phosphine gas in the upper troposphere. Atmospheric Environment Volume 37, Issue 18, June 2003, Pages 2429-2433

Greaves JS, Richards AMS, Bains W, Rimmer PB, Sagawa H, Clements DL, Seager S, Petkowski JJ, Sousa-Silva C, Ranjan S, Drabek-Maunder E, Fraser HJ, Cartwright A, Mueller-Wodarg I, Zhan Z, Friberg P, Coulson I, Lee E, Hoge J. Phosphine gas in the cloud decks of Venus. Published: 14 September 2020. Nature Astronomy (2020)

Levenspiel O, Fitzgerald TJ, Pettit D. Was the Atmospheric Pressure Different at the Time of Dinosaurs? Chemical Innovation, December 2000 Vol 30, No.12, 50 – 55

Limaye SS, Mogul R, Smith DJ, Ansari AH, Słowik GP, Vaishampayan P. Venus' Spectral Signatures and the Potential for Life in the Clouds. Astrobiology. 2018 Sep 1; 18(9): 1181–1198. Published online 2018 Sep 12. doi: 10.1089/ast.2017.1783

Morowitz H & Sagan C. Life in the Clouds of Venus? Nature volume 215, pages1259–1260(1967). 16 September 1967.

Otroshchenko V.A., Surkov Y.A. (1974) The Possibility of Organic Molecule Formation in the Venus Atmosphere. In: Oró J., Miller S.L., Ponnamperuma C., Young R.S. (eds) Cosmochemical Evolution and the Origins of Life. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-2239-2_40

Petrova EV. Glory on Venus and selection among the unknown UV absorbers. Icarus Volume 306, 15 May 2018, Pages 163-170

Seager S, Petkowski JJ, Gao P, Bains W, Bryan NC, Ranjan S, Greaves J. The Venusian Lower Atmosphere Haze as a Depot for Desiccated Microbial Life: A Proposed Life Cycle for Persistence of the Venusian Aerial Biosphere. Astrobiology. Published Online:13 Aug 2020. https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2020.2244

Sousa-Silva C, Seager S, Ranjan S, Petkowski JJ, Zhan Z, Hu R, Bains W. Phosphine as a Biosignature Gas in Exoplanet Atmospheres. AstrobiologyVol. 20, No. 2. Published Online:31 Jan 2020 https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2018.1954

Way MJ, Del Genio AD, Kiang NY, Sohl LE, Grinspoon DH, Aleinov I, Kelley M, Clune T. Was Venus the First Habitable World of our Solar System? Geophysical Research Letters. First published: 11 August 2016 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069790

Saturday, September 12, 2020

All Attempts to Broadcast Our Presence to Nearby Stars Should Be Forbidden

Here you can find a list of when there might be a response to known prior contact attempts within a century, assuming immediate light-speed response, and whether there are known terrestrial planets around the stars. This is incredibly dangerous and reveals the presence of intelligence on Earth to anything that might be listening, and should be immediately stopped (see Stephen Hawking's take on this here.) Granted, astronomers' definition of habitable - "terrestrial planet orbiting in liquid water temperature zone" - leaves a lot to be desired.

Until now. Measurements of terrestrial planets can now show if there is an atmosphere and it contains hydrogen, oxygen, and N2, making at least some water quite likely (Konatham et al 2020.)

We can update the list of stars where we've already broadcast contact attempts, with these new stricter criteria. There are two planets with atmospheres and likely water that we have deliberately broadcast to: Teegarden's Star, a red dwarf (with two planets with likely water), with a response possible by 2036; and GJ273b (Luyten's Star), with a super Earth with likely water, responding at earliest 2043.

Two facts to modify our enthusiasm:
  • Both are red dwarfs, which have a habit of flaring. However, Luyten's Star is quiet by these standards.
  • Also, aliens looking at our solar system using the same definition would keep both Mars and Venus on this stricter habitable list. Both do have atmospheres and some water.
Proxima Centauri is the closest star but in this more-strict list of habitable planets, but we haven't deliberately targeted it. It's worth pointing out that even if there were a twin Earth there, we still wouldn't be able to hear them (the C-index - a rule of thumb, assuming that strength of a civilization's emissions and ability to detect increase in concert.)

(Encouraging to amateurs: Teegarden's Star was discovered by a group of non-professional astronomers poring over data online, without access to telescopes.)

Konatham S, Martin-Torres J, Zorzano M. Atmospheric composition of exoplanets based on the thermal escape of gases and implications for habitability. Published:09 September 2020https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0148

Unexpected Ejection of Material from Asteroid Bennu

Of obvious interest to any panspermia hypotheses, especially those which favor replicators (Von Neumann probes or otherwise) using organics on low-gravity bodies as building blocks. Paper here. Abstract:
In early 2019, the OSIRIS‐REx spacecraft discovered small particles being ejected from the surface of the near‐Earth asteroid Bennu.sww Although they were seen to be ejected at slow speeds, on the order of tens of cm/s, a number of particles were surprisingly seen to orbit for multiple revolutions and days, which requires a dynamical mechanism to quickly and substantially modify the orbit to prevent re‐impact upon their first periapse passage. This paper demonstrates that, based on simulations constrained by the conditions of the observed events, the combined effects of gravity, solar radiation pressure, and thermal radiation pressure from Bennu can produce many sustained orbits for ejected particles. Furthermore, the simulated populations exhibit two interesting phenomena that could play an important role in the geophysical evolution of bodies such as Bennu. First, small particles (less than 1 cm radius) are preferentially removed from the system, which could lead to a deficit of such particles on the surface. Second, re‐impacting particles preferentially land near or on the equatorial bulge of Bennu. Over time, this can lead to crater in‐filling and growth of the equatorial radius without requiring landslides.
McMahon JW, Scheeres DJ, Chesley SR, French A, Brack D, Farnocchia D, Takahashi Y, Rozitis B, Tricarico P, Mazarico E, Bierhaus B, Emery JP, Hergenrother CW, Lauretta DS. JGR Planets. Dynamical Evolution of Simulated Particles Ejected From Asteroid Bennu. First published: 18 May 2020 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JE006229

Sunday, August 30, 2020

New Approaches on What the Fermi Paradox Means for the Future of Humanity

I was lucky to attend a video lecture by James Miller, economist at Smith College, facilitated by Joshua Fox. Thanks for having this event! I contacted James to let him know I would be posting this and to let him proofread my recapitulation of his argument so as to avoid mis-paraphrasing him; my thanks to him for taking the time to correct me on several points. Of course any errors are mine.

Much of this is familiar terrain for those of us who spend our time considering X-risk and the Fermi paradox. Miller's thesis is that we are at a critically important point in human history, a window where we think that in the near future we can start colonizing the galaxy (the year 2614 at earliest, by this calculation) but at the same time where we are smart enough to destroy ourselves. Since it is not obvious that the galaxy has already been colonized by other civilizations, there may be a Great Filter stopping this from happening. Miller uses the analogy of a person about to climb a mountain, believing that everyone else who has attempted it has died in the process.

Several challenges were discussed by attendees. (If you attended the lecture and want to claim credit for your question, please comment below, thanks.)
  1. It's too early to say there are no civilizations; it may not be so easy to detect them or rule them out. We're still discovering metazoans in Manhattan so it seems a little early to rule out von Neumann probes on low gravity bodies in the solar system. We've barely begun to catalog the fauna of our own ocean floors. We could not detect a twin Earth emitting the same radio energy (the C-index), even if it was orbiting Alpha Centauri. Miller points out that even if there were only a few civilizations in the Milky Way preceding us, "the galaxy is older than it is big", and these earlier civilizations could have colonized it already.

  2. He made the point that the things which prove advantageous in the midst of evolving on a single planet might have no such advantages in terms of galactic colonization. Very true; I would argue that we are much more likely to find alien artifacts, than the aliens themselves, as all of us meat-creatures might be stuck on our planets while our machines colonize the galaxy. To that end, (my point) it's entirely plausible that the Solar System could be littered with space probes and we haven't found any yet, or did, and just didn't know what we were looking at.

  3. I would therefore extend Miller's analogy like this. Only in the process of climbing the mountain, does our climber develop wilderness skills and begin to see things that resemble his own boot tracks, etc. and finally as he approaches the summit realizes that lots of people have climbed it, come down the other side, and their descendants have built large villages which due to his previous ignorance he has not been able to locate. (Or, maybe just some of their livestock, trained birds-of-prey, etc. have made it.)

  4. Active attempts to bring ourselves to the attention of aliens have occurred (METI) and been roundly criticized. Miller notes that the risk of extinction from aliens over the next few centuries is lower than eg bio-terrorism or an intelligence singularity. True; but we still may be making life more difficult for our descendants. Related to this, he proposes an ingenious experiment that for a month we should shout our heads off electromagnetically, and see if there is any strange activity. While I agree it's unlikely we'll get invaded next week, I still think the risk:benefit does not work out and there are just too many unknowns, and we may be screwing our distant descendants. Miller suggested that enforcing a moratorium on METI-like activities is probably impossible.

  5. He argues that technological singularities of the paperclip maximizer variety are unlikely to be a major contributor to the Great Filter, because we would be able to see the boundary of it as it expanded (unless it was doing so at light speed.) My concern with this is that, while an AGI might be much smarter than its creators, it is still not omniscient, and the impact of its actions could in principle still outstrip its ability to predict that impact. This is the story behind the rise of human intelligence and the sixth great extinction that we're living through, but has happened in pulses of endogenous extinctions throughout Earth's history (the rise of superpredators every fifty million years or so, the Oxygen Catastrophe). The lesson of evolution here on Earth is that the smarter things are, the faster their behavioral plasticity "catches up with them" in exactly these sorts of disasters, so to suppose that alien paperclip maximizers are immune to this problem is to argue that a qualitative change in ecological dynamics has occurred.

  6. There were two (possibly unappreciated) related questions asked: one about civilization perhaps being bad for sustaining civilization (witness declining birth rates in the developed world) and another that intelligences might prefer virtual reality - involution - to expanding into space. Miller points out the passive version of the "baseball bat" problem: you can live in heaven, but if a bad guy comes and bashes your server with a club and you as you sleep in your VR pod, that's the end of it. (Related: dynamic complex systems like minds, in principle, tend to drift toward delusion and suffer inherent cyclic crises.) It's a thesis for someone in psychology or a related field to note whether there is causation or just correlation between the increasingly encompassing virtual reality-like entertainments available in the developing world, and declining birth rates.

  7. One questioner asked about the distinction between intelligence and civilization - humans have had a "civilization" only since agriculture. This was a really original line of thought. Therefore, there could be many alien intelligences, but few or no civilizations. One solution for humans avoiding the Great Filter would be to abandon civilization and go back to hunting-gathering - not directly suggested, but this is the only implication of such an argument I could think of. The extreme number of assumptions built in to discussion of alien civilizations should always be pointed out - civilization is something that collections of human nervous systems do, and it is not clear it is a necessary consequence of intelligence. (As a physician I ask: do we assume the aliens will have similar EKG waveforms and liver enzymes as us? No, because that's ridiculous. So we do we assume that the even more complex activity of another organ, that we don't even share with other animals on this planet, is automatically going to be meaningfully similar?)


There's also a psychological point to be made about "big picture" arguments (the singularity, the Fermi paradox, the simulation argument, etc.) They have a tendency to converge on either prophetic religion-like conclusions (e.g. the singularity as the rapture for nerds) or Lovecraft (the estivation hypothesis, which was mentioned in a question and made me think about this.) When we talk about these things, there are many many unknowns. In such discussions, I think there is a tendency for the resulting arguments to resemble the internal contours of the human mind, more than any future events in the actual external world; hence their regression to religion-like conclusions. This does not mean such an argument must be incorrect, but it should make us suspicious when a big-picture argument hews too close to our "ontological test pattern. "

Consider in contrast cosmologists' models of the distant future of the universe, which concern physical objects which we can now observe and characterize, using rigorous mathematical rules. These models often seem boring, meaningless, difficult to understand, and unsatisfying. This is exactly how we should expect most models will seem of things outside our own and our ancestors' experiences, or beyond the scale of time and space to which we are accustomed and which we are built to perceive; the further outside their experience, the moreso. This occurred to me when we were discussing the estivation hypothesis, though overall Miller's arguments do not set off many alarm bells for this quick-and-very-dirty heuristic.

Lazerhawk - Redline, 2013

Origin of Life in RNA Computing: Independent Suggestion of Organic von Neumann Probes


Previously I had advanced the idea that, if intelligence has arisen elsewhere in the galaxy, it is likely to have colonized the galaxy in some form, and therefore we are more likely to find their artifacts here in our solar system than hear or understand their EM signals.  Specifically I argue that von Neumann probes are more likely to be entities of organic chemistry we find on low gravity bodies, that as natural selection is universal law that such entities - even if dispatched to gather information - would eventually be selected for fecundity; that is, they would inevitably become cancerous.  If the water that seeded the early Earth contained such entities, whether or not they were intact, the tumor detritis of these cancerous von Neumann probes would provide the template for life on ancient Earth.  

We have not nearly approached the amount of solar system exploration, or elaborated an abstract theory of how to recognize life or its artifacts, to be able to say we have absence of evidence.  Indeed we find nucleobases on asteroids, though so far we have no evidence so far that they originated from processes beyond the natural ones we are aware of.  

In a new paper, Hessameddin Akhlaghpour makes the observation that while the RNA information processing behavior of life on Earth is not Turing complete, with some additional (not implausible) molecular machinery, it would be.  He then argues that life originated with such a molecular machine and we have not yet found it.  (H/T Marginal Revolution)

Akhlaghpour H.  A Theory of Natural Universal Computation Through RNA.  arXiv:2008.08814


Sunday, July 5, 2020

Evergreen - Eye in the Sky (2018) (Cover of Alan Parsons Project Song from Eponymous Album, 1982)



Here's the original for comparison. It's interesting how many really well put-together songs tolerate export to other genres, and others which just fail (as in an otherwise great band covering themselves here.)



And while we're at the game of metal versions of 80s songs, just for fun here's Leo Moracchioli featuring Rabea and Hannah.



Sunday, June 28, 2020

The Earth Has Not Been Disassembled for Computation - Percent Utilization of Phosphorus and Nitrogen on Earth by Living Things

A 2015 paper by Landenmark et al estimates the total number of DNA bases in nature as 5.3x10^31 megabases. This of course leads to questions like: how much of the elements on Earth is life on Earth using? I'm aiming for an answer within an order of magnitude. This has implications for concerns about AI takeoff that I will return to at the end.


NITROGEN

Living things occupy slightly more than a billionth of the planet's nitrogen in our DNA (0.000000115%). Living things occupy 0.0023% of the planet's nitrogen overall, the lion's share of which of course is in protein. (See my assumptions below if you like.)


PHOSPHORUS

Living things are using only 0.00047% of the planet's phosphorus in our DNA - but that expands to 4.7% of the planet's phosphorus in living cells overall. This is a much more significant fraction.


Does this difference exist because life on Earth has chosen phosphorus as, effectively, energy currency to manipulate gradients? Or because nitrogen is harder to make biologically available? Even now we rely on relatively few bottlenecks to fix it.



IMPLICATIONS FOR AI TAKEOFF

There's no reason to assume that these numbers represent a global, rather than local optimum for resource utilization for replicators on Earth. That said, we've had four billion years to optimize. This is relevant because of the concern that AI taking off without regard to human welfare would disassemble the Earth into atoms for computation - the farther we are from truly optimized resource utilization, the more an intelligence explosion would be disruptive to the status quo. I found the Bar-On paper on amount of DNA in the biosphere from a link in a discussion about the computational efficiency of nucleic acids in cells. The latter paper suggests that protein translation is several orders of magnitude faster than the fastest current computers, and only an order of magnitude under the Laundauer limit. Of course, resource utilization and computing speed are two different variables, but it seems computation is getting near optimized already - and yet, no disassembly of the Earth for phosphorus. Not even 5% of the energy currency atoms are put to work! Of course, an AI would be qualitatively and quantitatively different in unpredictable ways from what came before, in which case there is no point in discussing this - but the replicators that exist in reality make the best starting point for such a discussiong.

What's more, protein translation is computation in the service of replication. It is quite likely that AIs would end up being selected in much the same way as cells have, with limited resources to be dedicated to refining the model of the universe (getting smarter.) The ivory tower AI super-minds would be dominated by the silicon bacteria. Of course, this is still no reason to think a hard AI takeoff could be disastrous for all life on Earth, an extinction like we've never seen - which the AIs themselves might not have the foresight to survive - but if they do, the best bet is that they will "revert to the mean" of all replicators, with making copies as the goal.




An imperfect analogy. In nature, you have to make do with what's there. The shapes aren't friendly for efficient packing and there are a lot more holes.


Assumptions:

I could not find estimates of the overall mass of nitrogen and phosphorus in the biosphere, so I used the percentage weights in living cells, and derived from a paper estimating the mass of carbon in the biosphere at 5.5x10^14 kg (Bar-On et al 2018), along with carbon being 18% of the atoms in living things.

For both I used 2884.6 kg/m^3 mass of the Earth's crust (weighted the differently dense continental and oceanic crusts at 0.3 and 0.7 resp.) My number for nitrogen comes from nitrogen in the atmosphere, plus nitrogen in the top meter of the Earth's crust, estimating mass of the atmosphere as 5.15*10^18 kg, of which 78.09% is nitrogen, and abundance in the crust as 0.002% by mass (there was some conflict over this between sources actually of up to an order of magnitude; but there is so little nitrogen in the crust compared to the atmosphere, about 347,000 times less using this number, that it's still a rounding error. I assume that there are an equal number of A T C and G which means 3.75xnitrogen atoms per base.

For phosphorus, I used a crustal abundance of 0.1% mass, ignoring the negligible phosphorus in the atmosphere. There is 1xphosphorus atom per base. The major "slop" in this figure occurs because different organisms have different fractions of phosphorus, for one thing since phosphorus is used in structural molecules like bone (85% of phosphorus in humans is in bone; even the same organism at different ages differs substantially, e.g. 0.5% in infants, close to 1% in adults.) Bacteria come in at 0.9% (3% dry weight, assuming 70% water mass per cell) so I used that figure, since bacteria outweigh us by a factor of a thousand, and the number is intermediate even for the values for vertebrates.


REFERENCES

Bar-On YM, Phillips R, Milo R. The biomass distribution on Earth. PNAS June 19, 2018 115 (25) 6506-6511.

P. Kempes CP, Wolpert D, Cohen Z, Pérez-Mercader J. The thermodynamic efficiency of computations made in cells across the range of life. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2017 Dec 28; 375(2109): 20160343.

Landenmark HKE, Forgan DH, Cockell CS. An Estimate of the Total DNA in the Biosphere. PLoS Biol. 2015 Jun; 13(6): e1002168. Published online 2015 Jun 11. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1002168

Michael Schirber. Chemistry of Life: The Human Body. Livescience.com. https://www.livescience.com/3505-chemistry-life-human-body.html#:~:text=Oxygen%20(65%25)%20and%20hydrogen,%25)%20is%20synonymous%20with%20life.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

New Estimate for Number of Active Civilizations in the Milky Way

A summary:
  • At a lower bound, it's estimated on average there is one 17,000 LY away. The number that is being reported is that this means at least 36 civilizations in the galaxy.

  • They mention the problem of relying on M-class stars as abodes for life - because they're quite unstable (flares). I have not read the paper in detail, but it seems hard to understand, if there are only 36 star systems, why those couldn't all be G-class stars.

  • They also estimate a lower bound of communicating for only a century (since we've been communicating for that long so we know it's possible.) If it's only a 100 year period, if we're hearing them now, they were active before agriculture.

  • There's also the problem of being able to discern signal from noise at that distance - and not knowing what type of signal we're looking for. A useful thought experiment is the C-index, which is the distance at which we could detect a twin Earth with identical EM emissions. By most estimates, even if there were a twin Earth orbiting Alpha Centauri, we still today could not hear them. This leads the authors to conclude that interstellar communication is for all intents and purposes impossible.

  • Therefore, any persisting civilization is plausibly more likely to be detected by self-replicating artifacts. This all reinforces the greater relative importance of looking for artifacts in our own solar system, which is something we can conceivably do with known technology in the near future, with less of a signal-to-noise problem.


Westby T. and Conselice CJ. The Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong Limits for Intelligent Life. The Astrophysical Journal. 2020 June 15.

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

The Asimov Library, and the Idea Catalog

Hat tip Marginal Revolution for both of these.
  1. the nucleus of it is starting with this man, who as a labor of love is collecting/cataloging all of Asimov's work. Thank you Steven Cooper!

  2. Catalog of science fiction ideas by year appearing - I've linked to the nineteenth century.

Sunday, June 7, 2020

Review: Ad Astra

Initially I was excited to see this, not sure why it got so little fanfare, and now I know. Critics were surprisingly positive. I notice that any time Brad Pitt is in something, they give the film as a whole an inflated grade, even if he turns in consistently good performances. I can see why critics get a warm glow from his projects - he's a good actor, he's good-looking, he's a nice guy and he takes his profession seriously. But that can't save everything, and a movie with him, Donald Sutherland and Tommy Lee Jones that isn't a home run strongly suggests there's a problem with the script.

And there is. This is a movie that can't make up its mind. Are we a near-future hopeful thriller, or a nostalgia film, or a dark reflection on the qualitative differences of the new frontier and whether humans are up to the challenge. (It is possible to be all three, but this film ended up with a few confused moments of each and executed on none of these themes.) Do we want to be a plot coupon-collecting adventure, or a psychological exploration? (It's hard to tell which was central in the writers' minds, and which was added to support the other, because both are so unsatisfying.) The reasons many scenes take place are thin and barely coherent.

Keep in mind SPOILER ALERT I only watched to the part where he contacts his father from Mars, and read about the rest of it online to avoid investing another hour of my life in it.

  1. The most realistic portrayal of space travel in film? That's a serious assertion made by the creators of this? 73 days to Neptune and a week or so to Mars...come on. Very little in the way of considering automation. It seems like they took the aesthetic of the Apollo era and extended it to the late 21st century, except the rockets were magically faster.

  2. Action sequences are overall, again, crow-barred in as well, to keep it interesting. The only one that seemed interesting was the fall from the exploding antenna at the beginning. Reminds you of the drop onto Vulcan in the first Star Trek reboot-meets-Baumgartner and Kittinger.

  3. The journey across the Moon is where it really started to lose me. Why again do they not just land there initially, or failing that, at least take a rocket? Oh yeah, the Moon pirates. Surviving on the Moon takes a massive amount of infrastructure. So where are these Moon pirates hiding out that they're undetected, and how do their supplies get to them without detection? Within minutes of their appearance they're wiped out from over-the-horizon artillery, so it's hard to explain how a major operation like a Moon-base could get very far. Apparently it took a human seeing them to detect them (and not a satellite - ???) It's this and many other things that make the movie just seem like a cobbled-together set of action sequences with very little thought. We have almost zero background on the world situation at the time, which is made most obvious by these events (if the Moon is a war zone, who's at war? Over what?)

  4. Why does a biomedical station have to be in interplanetary space between Earth and Mars? What do they get out there that they can't get in Earth orbit? This is where the movie more or less lost me.

  5. Why again do they have to go to Mars to transmit to Neptune? And at closest, the one-way light speed communication time is four hours. Even if there is some hint I missed that in fact he's sitting there for hours, this is not conveyed well.

  6. The "psychological" aspect to the movie - the father-son relationship, the protagonist's personality structure - is so trite and ham-fisted and again feels so crow-barred in that it's simultaneously irritating to have to sit through, and annoying at how ineffective it is. I thought the psych evals were going to be a clever plot twist and Pitt's character was fooling them.

  7. Antimatter flares heading toward Earth and destroying all life? Even if this were the most realistic depiction of space travel, the liberties taken with other aspects of science dominate. It's a poor man's Interstellar, right down to its less effective attempts to carry on in the tradition of 2001.

  8. The philosophical implications of being the only, or the first intelligence - unless there's something really subtle that the summaries missed, this movie really missed an exploration of a theme that's under-explored in science fiction in general and especially in movies.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Reinstate George Anderson at Oakland Music Center


This is George in Down Factor and From Hell. (Second from right - next to Paul Bostaph from Slayer.) I had the good fortune to know George, wow, over 15 years ago through a series of coincidences. He's a really good guy and a huge part of the East Bay metal scene. (Here's Walking Dead off Ascent From Hell.)

He should remain at Oakland Music Center. You should help make this happen - Change.org petition is here.