More On Mars, and the Great Filter Being Behind Us

The closer the Great Filter is to us (in terms of developmental stage) the more nervous we should be. If it's past us, we're doomed.

I argued previously that the Mars clay findings were good news, because it moves the needle toward the Filter being behind us. And, it's becoming harder and harder to explain organics on Mars as abiotic. This data isn't a smoking gun but each discovery inches the best explanation toward life (even if now extinct.)

Here's a model for evolution of life on other planets: on terrestrial planets with water, evolution of unicellular life is overwhelmingly likely, given how fast it appeared. ("Thermodynamic" argument: fast = likely.) What's unlikely is the leaps that have allowed the evolution of complex and therefore intelligent life. Most of Earth's history was just oceans filled with single-celled organisms that at times went through build-ups and die-backs (this always reminds me of simple blinker states in Conway's game of life.) The Cambrian explosion happened *85%* of the way through the history of life on Earth.

Conclusion: we are unlikely to be "alone" per se, but the universe is filled with blue-green algae worlds, without rabbits, T. rexes or civilizations.